ECON7310: Elements of Econometrics
Research Project 3
计量经济学代写 Answer all questions following a similar format of the answers to your tutorial questions and the solution of assignment 1…
Instruction 计量经济学代写
Answer all questions following a similar format of the answers to your tutorial questions and the solution of assignment 1. That is, your empirical analysis and arguments have to base on your STATA outputs (included in your report). Your STATA log-file needs to be attached as part of the Appendix. Your points depend upon the completeness of the project and the quality of the report submitted. UQ’s student integrity and misconduct policy on plagiarism apply.
You have to upload your report via the Turnitin portal (in the folder of “Assessment”) by 11:00 on the due date 30 May, 2021. Although the online Turnitin portal will allow you to sub- mit your assessment piece multiple times, we would ask that you submit no more than three times. Also, please do not wait until just before the deadline to submit your assessment. The Turnitin portals are open for at least 48 hours, and it is expected that you will allow yourself enough time to complete your assessment and submit it on time, allowing time for possible technical issues or submission problems. In other words, please keep in mind the risk if you decide to wait until the last minute to submit your assessment.
If you submit your assign- ments after the deadline, your mark will be deducted automatically based on the time stamp in the Turnitin system. We strongly suggest you use the Equation Editor in Microsoft Word and submit the Word document.1 Email submissions are not accepted.
Since the lockdown started in Australia, many Australians lost their job.
The Australian government passed its $130 billion JobKeeper package to reduce the unemployment rate in Australia. The longer this lasts, the higher the numbers of unemployment goes. They want to know what kind of workers might lose their jobs during the COVID-19 health crisis. Specifi- cally, are young workers more likely to lose their jobs than middle-aged workers? Does their education background help them to keep their jobs? 计量经济学代写
Unfortunately, you have only one dataset (i.e. Project III Data.csv), which contains a random sample of 5,412 workers from the U.S. They were surveyed in 2008 after the global financial crisis of 2007-08 and reported that they were employed. The data file contains their employment status (i.e. employed or not) in 2009, one year later, along with some additional variables. A detailed description is given in the following table:
(a) (10points) Using a linear probability model (LPM) to regress employed on age and age2 and report regression results. Was age a statistically significant determinant of employment? Is there evidence of a nonlinear effect of age on the probability of being employed? 计量经济学代写
(b) (15points) Repeat (a) using a probit and logit regression model and report your Explain the difference between probit and logit model.
(c) (10 points) Using the models of LPM, probit and logit to compute the predicted proba-bility of employment for a 20-year-old worker, a 40-year-old worker, and a 60-year-old worker and fill the following Explain to differences in the results.
Table 1: Predicted Probability 计量经济学代写
LPM Probit Logit
P (employe^d = 1|age = 20) 0.730
P (employe^d = 1|age = 40) 0.916 0.911
P (employe^d = 1|age = 60) 0.832
(d) (10 points) You do not need to estimate MSPE (mean squared prediction error) using STATA, but explain how to use MSPE to compare the fits of the models (of LPM, Probit and Logit). Explain the difference between MSPE and MSFE (mean squared forecast error).
(e) (15 points) The data set includes variables measuring the workers’ educational attain-ment, gender, race, marital status, region of the country, and weekly Repeat (a) and (b) using these factors as additional regressors and construct a table (such as Ta- ble 11.2 in SW textbook) to investigate whether the conclusions on the effect of age on employment from (a) and (b) are reliable or not. Use the regressions in your table to discuss the characteristics of workers who were hurt most by the financial crisis. [Hint: Generating dummies for race groups and using logarithm of weekly ]
(f) (10 points) What is simultaneous causality bias? Explain the potential for simultaneouscausality in this study, such as the unemployment rate and age (or educational attain- ment). What is the solution for the simultaneous causality bias? 计量经济学代写
(g) (10points) What is the population of interest in this study? What is the population stud- ied? How to assess the external validity of this study?
(h) (10 points) Suppose you want to predict the unemployed rate using the dataset and thenumber of regressor (or predictor) is large relative to the sample size. Can you use the leave-one-out cross-validation with ridge regression estimator and/or LASSO estimator in this study? What is the purpose to use the leave-one-out cross-validation? Please explain the difference between the ridge regression and LASSO.
(i) (10 points) What is the purpose of AIC and BIC? Please explain the difference betweenAIC and BIC?
