ECON7310: Elements of Econometrics
Research Project 3
计量经济学Project代写 Answer all questions following a similar format of the answers to your tutorial questions and the solution of assignment…
Instruction 计量经济学Project代写
Answer all questions following a similar format of the answers to your tutorial questions and the solution of assignment 1. That is, your empirical analysis and arguments have to base on your STATA outputs (included in your report). Your STATA log-fifile needs to be attached as part of the Appendix. Your points depend upon the completeness of the project and the quality of the report submitted. UQ’s student integrity and misconduct policy on plagiarism apply.
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Since the lockdown started in Australia, many Australians lost their job. 计量经济学Project代写
The Australian government passed its $130 billion JobKeeper package to reduce the unemployment rate in Australia. The longer this lasts, the higher the numbers of unemployment goes. They want to know what kind of workers might lose their jobs during the COVID-19 health crisis. Specififically, are young workers more likely to lose their jobs than middle-aged workers? Does their education background help them to keep their jobs?
Unfortunately, you have only one dataset (i.e. Project III Data.csv), which contains a random sample of 5,412 workers from the U.S. They were surveyed in 2008 after the global fifinancial crisis of 2007-08 and reported that they were employed. The data fifile contains their employment status (i.e. employed or not) in 2009, one year later, along with some additional variables. A detailed description is given in the following table:
(a) (10 points) Using a linear probability model (LPM) to regress employed on age and age2 and report regression results. Was age a statistically signifificant determinant of employment? Is there evidence of a nonlinear effect of age on the probability of being employed?
(b) (15 points) Repeat (a) using a probit and logit regression model and report your results. Explain the difference between probit and logit model.
(c) (10 points) Using the models of LPM, probit and logit to compute the predicted probability of employment for a 20-year-old worker, a 40-year-old worker, and a 60-year-old worker and fifill the following table. Explain to differences in the results.
(d) (10 points) You do not need to estimate MSPE (mean squared prediction error) using STATA, but explain how to use MSPE to compare the fifits of the models (of LPM, Probit and Logit). Explain the difference between MSPE and MSFE (mean squared forecast error).
(e) (15 points) The data set includes variables measuring the workers’ educational attainment, gender, race, marital status, region of the country, and weekly earnings. Repeat 计量经济学Project代写
(a) and (b) using these factors as additional regressors and construct a table (such as Table 11.2 in SW textbook) to investigate whether the conclusions on the effect of age on employment from (a) and (b) are reliable or not. Use the regressions in your table to discuss the characteristics of workers who were hurt most by the fifinancial crisis. [Hint: Generating dummies for race groups and using logarithm of weekly earnings.]
(f) (10 points) What is simultaneous causality bias? Explain the potential for simultaneous causality in this study, such as the unemployment rate and age (or educational attainment). What is the solution for the simultaneous causality bias?
(g) (10 points) What is the population of interest in this study? What is the population studied? How to assess the external validity of this study?
(h) (10 points) Suppose you want to predict the unemployed rate using the dataset and the number of regressor (or predictor) is large relative to the sample size. Can you use the leave-one-out cross-validation with ridge regression estimator and/or LASSO estimator in this study? What is the purpose to use the leave-one-out cross-validation? Please explain the difference between the ridge regression and LASSO. 计量经济学Project代写
(i) (10 points) What is the purpose of AIC and BIC? Please explain the difference between AIC and BIC?
